2017 · CON

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

7·38

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

39

Model margin

-0.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.051
  • 42.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.66CPOE+0.38
  • 44.3%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.12
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
MINQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:14417Punt7–0
MINQ1 8:29614Opp touchdown7–7
MINQ1 6:2635Punt7–7
PHIQ1 4:571275Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 13:3738Punt7–14
PHIQ2 11:54614Punt7–14
MINQ2 9:191161Turnover7–14
PHIQ2 3:16776Touchdown7–21
MINQ2 1:09622Punt7–21
PHIQ2 0:29360Field goal7–24
PHIQ3 15:00875Touchdown7–31
MINQ3 10:051268Turnover on downs7–31
PHIQ3 6:211288Touchdown7–38
MINQ4 14:10620Turnover on downs7–38
PHIQ4 12:29415Punt7–38
MINQ4 9:391160Turnover7–38
PHIQ4 5:52640End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum28/4827112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon10404.00
Latavius Murray6183.00
Case Keenum188.00
Jarius Wright144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon1112860
Stefon Diggs812700
Jarius Wright36510
Adam Thielen39280
Kyle Rudolph14251
Latavius Murray22110
Laquon Treadwell0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles26/3335230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi18734.10
LeGarrette Blount6213.51
Corey Clement22010.00
Nelson Agholor100.00
Nate Sudfeld3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz88930
Alshon Jeffery55852
Torrey Smith57691
Nelson Agholor34590
Jay Ajayi33260
Trey Burton12120
Corey Clement1180
Brent Celek0100
Mack Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.44
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.87