Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
39
Model margin
-0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.051
- 42.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.66CPOE+0.38
- 44.3%Third-down rate42.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.12
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 28/48 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 11 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 26/33 | 352 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 5 | 85 | 2 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.87