2022 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

7·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.8%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.130EPA / rush+0.072
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.66CPOE+2.05
  • 40.7%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.43
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001287Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:0935Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:3458Punt0–7
MINQ1 4:3735Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:19882Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 14:52975Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 9:39610Punt7–14
MINQ2 6:2038Punt7–14
PHIQ2 5:00785Touchdown7–21
MINQ2 1:5840Punt7–21
PHIQ2 1:21775Field goal7–24
MINQ3 15:00965Turnover7–24
PHIQ3 9:511069Missed field goal7–24
MINQ3 3:1733Turnover7–24
PHIQ3 2:19942Punt7–24
MINQ4 11:491232Punt7–24
PHIQ4 8:182-1Turnover7–24
MINQ4 7:2530Turnover7–24
PHIQ4 7:11729Punt7–24
MINQ4 3:511271End of half7–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins27/4622113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kirk Cousins22010.00
Dalvin Cook6172.80
Jalen Reagor11717.00
Alexander Mattison284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen47520
Justin Jefferson612480
Irv Smith58361
Johnny Mundt23280
K.J. Osborn22250
Dalvin Cook46190
Jalen Reagor1270
Alexander Mattison3560

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts26/3133311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders17804.70
Jalen Hurts11575.22
Boston Scott4194.80
Kenny Gainwell273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert56820
DeVonta Smith77800
A.J. Brown58690
Quez Watkins22691
Zach Pascal22140
Kenny Gainwell12110
Miles Sanders3360
Boston Scott1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08