Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.100
- 45.8%Success rate47.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.130EPA / rush+0.072
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.66CPOE+2.05
- 40.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.04Points / drive2.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 27/46 | 221 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 12 | 48 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 5 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 26/31 | 333 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 69 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08