Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.037
- 43.2%Success rate46.2%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.40CPOE+5.11
- 36.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.57Points / drive2.01
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/37 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 10 | 116 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 24/35 | 311 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Shelton Gibson | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.67