2018 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

23·21

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.037
  • 43.2%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.40CPOE+5.11
  • 36.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.01
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
MINQ1 15:001165Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 8:403-12Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:04431Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 5:0238Punt3–0
MINQ1 2:51614Punt3–0
PHIQ2 14:35455Field goal3–3
MINQ2 12:24854Missed field goal3–3
PHIQ2 6:53529Opp touchdown10–3
PHIQ2 4:1238Punt10–3
MINQ2 2:45944Touchdown17–3
PHIQ2 0:2113End of half17–3
PHIQ3 15:001068Turnover17–3
MINQ3 9:33591Field goal20–3
PHIQ3 7:32772Field goal20–6
MINQ3 2:5736Punt20–6
PHIQ3 1:191066Touchdown20–14
MINQ4 12:05417Turnover20–14
PHIQ4 10:0340Punt20–14
MINQ4 9:111055Field goal23–14
PHIQ4 2:47767Touchdown23–21
MINQ4 1:0900End of half23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/3730110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray11423.80
Stefon Diggs22512.50
Roc Thomas482.00
Kirk Cousins510.20
Mike Boone111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen7101161
Stefon Diggs1011910
Kyle Rudolph55410
Laquon Treadwell34210
Latavius Murray22140
Roc Thomas1260
David Morgan1150
Aldrick Robinson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz24/3531120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi8293.60
Wendell Smallwood3279.00
Carson Wentz5265.20
Josh Adams1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz10111101
Shelton Gibson11480
Nelson Agholor44450
Wendell Smallwood34441
Alshon Jeffery28390
Dallas Goedert22160
Jay Ajayi1150
Jordan Matthews1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.67