Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
53
Model margin
-0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.017
- 46.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.002
- 13.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +2.43CPOE-2.09
- 39.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 30/48 | 428 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 10 | 15 | 195 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 26/35 | 382 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 30 | 51 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 11 | 13 | 163 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 5 | 95 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.34