2013 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

30·48

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

53

Model margin

-0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapVikings
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.017
  • 46.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.002
  • 13.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +2.43CPOE-2.09
  • 39.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00943Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 9:3030Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:22491Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 6:18973Field goal3–7
MINQ1 2:35959Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 13:191062Field goal6–10
MINQ2 8:551764Touchdown6–17
PHIQ2 1:06766Field goal9–17
PHIQ3 15:003-6Punt9–17
MINQ3 13:41452Touchdown9–24
PHIQ3 12:03536Turnover9–24
MINQ3 10:1039Punt9–24
PHIQ3 7:4049Turnover on downs9–24
MINQ3 6:0434Field goal9–27
PHIQ3 4:43670Touchdown16–27
MINQ3 3:1447Turnover16–27
PHIQ3 1:18345Touchdown22–27
MINQ3 0:15654Touchdown22–34
PHIQ4 13:013-2Punt22–34
MINQ4 11:38436Punt22–34
PHIQ4 8:4832Punt22–34
MINQ4 7:55318Touchdown22–41
PHIQ4 6:54785Touchdown30–41
MINQ4 4:26918Touchdown30–48
PHIQ4 1:09435End of half30–48

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles30/4842831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Foles5418.20
LeSean McCoy8384.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson10151951
LeSean McCoy57680
Zach Ertz69571
Jason Avant35401
Riley Cooper47290
Brent Celek11250
Brad Smith11140
Damaris Johnson0100
Chris Polk0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel26/3538221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata30511.73
Matt Cassel3196.31
Cordarrelle Patterson2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings11131631
Jarius Wright45950
Chase Ford22550
Cordarrelle Patterson56351
Jerome Simpson13190
Matt Asiata35150
Joe Webb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.34