Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.094
- 43.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.115
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.26CPOE-2.84
- 37.5%Third-down rate32.4%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.75
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/23 | 326 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | -10 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 11 | 183 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 121 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/42 | 313 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 9 | 12 | 128 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.70
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.73