2025 · Week 7

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

28·22

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapVikings
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.094
  • 43.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback-0.115
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.26CPOE-2.84
  • 37.5%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.75
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIN
PHIQ1 15:001275Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 6:591061Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 2:0439Punt7–3
MINQ1 0:31423Opp touchdown14–3
MINQ2 13:2631Turnover14–3
PHIQ2 12:0233Punt14–3
MINQ2 9:37774Field goal14–6
PHIQ2 6:34411Punt14–6
MINQ2 4:20618Punt14–6
PHIQ2 0:59419End of half14–6
MINQ3 15:00952Field goal14–9
PHIQ3 9:02284Touchdown21–9
MINQ3 8:07946Touchdown21–16
PHIQ3 3:38857Missed field goal21–16
MINQ4 14:15651Field goal21–19
PHIQ4 10:06770Touchdown28–19
MINQ4 6:351561Field goal28–22
PHIQ4 1:57638Turnover on downs28–22

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts19/2332630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18442.40
Tank Bigsby11111.00
Jalen Hurts4-10-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith9111831
A.J. Brown461212
Dallas Goedert33180
Will Shipley1170
Tank Bigsby11-10
Saquon Barkley11-20

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz26/4231302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason15573.81
Carson Wentz4287.00
Zavier Scott441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison9121280
Justin Jefferson510790
T.J. Hockenson69430
Jalen Nailor24370
Adam Thielen12100
Josh Oliver1190
Zavier Scott1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.70
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.73