Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.028
- 40.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.182
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 35.2%Third-down rate28.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.21Points / drive1.12
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 15/24 | 155 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 17 | 118 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/26 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 9 | 13 | 137 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83