2001 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

17·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.028
  • 40.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.182
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 35.2%Third-down rate28.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
  • 1.21Points / drive1.12
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.053EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:40741Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:31231Turnover7–0
NYGQ1 8:33827Punt7–0
ARIQ1 4:3537Punt7–0
NYGQ1 3:12618Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ1 0:581143Turnover7–0
NYGQ2 10:24542Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 7:4036Punt14–0
NYGQ2 6:0233Punt14–0
ARIQ2 4:57238Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 4:38428Punt14–7
ARIQ2 1:5136Punt14–7
NYGQ2 1:1035Punt14–7
NYGQ3 15:00416Turnover14–7
ARIQ3 12:43835Field goal14–10
NYGQ3 8:05974Turnover on downs14–10
ARIQ3 2:5032Punt14–10
NYGQ3 1:46933Field goal17–10
ARIQ4 11:391452Turnover on downs17–10
NYGQ4 4:111048Punt17–10
ARIQ4 0:1810Turnover17–10
NYGQ4 0:101-1End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins15/2415511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber171186.90
Ron Dayne19492.61
Ike Hilliard12121.00
Kerry Collins4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard35431
Amani Toomer45430
Greg Comella22230
Joe Jurevicius14140
Dan Campbell12110
Tiki Barber2280
Ron Dayne1280
Howard Cross1150

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer13/2617211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman17543.20
Thomas Jones5153.00
Jake Plummer393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston9131371
MarTay Jenkins14220
Michael Pittman2370
Frank Sanders1260
Tywan Mitchell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.83