2001 · Week 9 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

15·12

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

33

Model margin

-2.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.113
  • 42.5%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.148
  • 11.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 45.8%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:21836Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:592-1Safety0–2
CLEQ1 8:45649Touchdown0–9
PITQ1 6:43950Field goal3–9
CLEQ1 2:01726Punt3–9
PITQ2 13:251273Field goal6–9
CLEQ2 6:12418Punt6–9
PITQ2 4:01951Punt6–9
CLEQ2 0:3710End of half6–9
CLEQ3 15:003-6Punt6–9
PITQ3 13:13546Field goal9–9
CLEQ3 10:521343Field goal9–12
PITQ3 4:20776Turnover9–12
CLEQ3 0:4836Punt9–12
PITQ4 14:45739Field goal12–12
CLEQ4 11:2834Punt12–12
PITQ4 10:303-4Punt12–12
CLEQ4 9:353-14Punt12–12
PITQ4 8:1837Punt12–12
CLEQ4 6:4666Punt12–12
PITQ4 3:19632Missed field goal12–12
CLEQ4 1:37719Punt12–12
PITQ4 0:061-1End of half12–12
PITOT858Field goal15–12

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart18/3218800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis291635.60
Kordell Stewart7659.30
Amos Zereoue4205.00
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amos Zereoue33770
Hines Ward811550
Plaxico Burress410440
Bobby Shaw1290
Mark Bruener1230
Jerome Bettis1100
Troy Edwards0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch18/3316010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson18573.20
Tim Couch3155.00
Jamel White221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson816620
Quincy Morgan34280
Jamel White12260
Jammi German33230
O.J. Santiago23141
Mike Sellers1270
Aaron Shea0100
Dennis Northcutt0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.18