Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
33
Model margin
-2.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.113
- 42.5%Success rate36.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.148
- 11.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- 45.8%Third-down rate31.3%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.58Points / drive1.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 18/32 | 188 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 29 | 163 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 8 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 18/33 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 8 | 16 | 62 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.18