Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:13 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:35 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 3:12 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:16 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 13:12 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 8:02 | 8 | 17 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 4:33 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 1:07 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| DEN | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q2 0:28 | 3 | 31 | End of half | 0–20 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–20 |
| DEN | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 11:54 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| DEN | Q3 9:42 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 3–26 |
| LAC | Q3 5:38 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 3–26 |
| DEN | Q3 3:22 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–26 |
| LAC | Q3 0:48 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–26 |
| DEN | Q4 14:50 | 7 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 10:57 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 16–26 |
| DEN | Q4 10:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 8:33 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| DEN | Q4 7:25 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 6:14 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| DEN | Q4 5:58 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 2:38 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| DEN | Q4 2:03 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 16–26 |
| LAC | Q4 0:55 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 16–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 21/31 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 33 | 83 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Terrell Davis | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.