2001 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.101
- 39.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.9%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.43Points / drive0.89
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/36 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
| Martin Gramatica | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 13 | 72 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 21/39 | 239 | 1 | 2 |
| Mike McMahon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 4 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64