Closing spread
GB -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.054
- 39.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 40.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.45Points / drive1.76
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 9–8 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 14:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:19 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:18 | 1 | -8 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:52 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:19 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| ATL | Q1 2:41 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 12:51 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–3 |
| ATL | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 9:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:28 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| GB | Q2 4:57 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| ATL | Q2 1:52 | 7 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 16–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 58 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| GB | Q3 8:49 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| ATL | Q3 2:31 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| GB | Q4 14:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–13 |
| ATL | Q4 13:17 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| GB | Q4 8:49 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| ATL | Q4 6:31 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 23–20 |
| GB | Q4 5:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–20 |
| ATL | Q4 3:28 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 23–20 |
| GB | Q4 1:52 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 23–20 |
| ATL | Q4 1:08 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 29/50 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 16/29 | 262 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 3 | 117 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.94