2023 · Week 2

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

24·25

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.089
  • 45.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.171
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.07CPOE-3.52
  • 47.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.58
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
GBQ1 15:0043Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:54316Turnover0–0
GBQ1 12:303-12Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:331571Field goal0–3
GBQ1 3:501184Touchdown7–3
ATLQ2 13:33950Turnover on downs7–3
GBQ2 8:51944Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 3:061175Touchdown10–9
GBQ2 0:1200End of half10–9
ATLQ3 15:0040Punt10–9
GBQ3 14:29760Touchdown17–9
ATLQ3 10:311260Field goal17–12
GBQ3 3:07535Touchdown24–12
ATLQ3 0:56965Touchdown24–19
GBQ4 11:4832Punt24–19
ATLQ4 10:51744Field goal24–22
GBQ4 8:1039Punt24–22
ATLQ4 6:071166Field goal24–25
GBQ4 0:5740Turnover on downs24–25
ATLQ4 0:3800End of half24–25

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love14/2515130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon15553.70
Jordan Love22311.50
Emanuel Wilson351.70
Patrick Taylor111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontayvion Wicks24401
Jayden Reed48372
Romeo Doubs23300
Luke Musgrave23250
AJ Dillon1180
Samori Toure1260
Josiah Deguara2250
Patrick Taylor0100
Malik Heath0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder19/3223711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson191246.50
Tyler Allgeier16483.00
Desmond Ridder10393.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London68671
Mack Hollins36600
Bijan Robinson45480
Jonnu Smith46470
Kyle Pitts25150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.53