Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.089
- 45.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.07CPOE-3.52
- 47.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.16Points / drive1.58
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14/25 | 151 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 8 | 37 | 2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/32 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53