Closing spread
GB -4
Total
51
Model margin
+0.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.054
- 46.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.21CPOE-1.39
- 45.1%Third-down rate36.5%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.34Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/42 | 262 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 11 | 106 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Eric Saubert | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/32 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49