2018 · Week 14

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

20·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

51

Model margin

+0.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.054
  • 46.6%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.21CPOE-1.39
  • 45.1%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
ATLQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 11:361069Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 7:111138Missed field goal7–7
GBQ1 0:413-10Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:523-2Punt7–7
GBQ2 13:471143Field goal7–10
ATLQ2 7:4536Opp touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 6:01622Punt7–17
GBQ2 2:45943Field goal7–20
GBQ3 15:00847Touchdown7–27
ATLQ3 12:443-1Punt7–27
GBQ3 10:29871Touchdown7–34
ATLQ3 5:51611Punt7–34
GBQ3 3:4733Punt7–34
ATLQ3 2:471178Touchdown14–34
GBQ4 13:3448Punt14–34
ATLQ4 10:391158Turnover14–34
GBQ4 6:44827Punt14–34
ATLQ4 2:371054Touchdown20–34
GBQ4 0:1400End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4226231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith11605.50
Tevin Coleman10454.50
Brian Hill155.00
Matt Ryan100.00
Marvin Hall1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones8111062
Mohamed Sanu68540
Austin Hooper46370
Justin Hardy34301
Eric Saubert23150
Ito Smith34140
Calvin Ridley14100
Marvin Hall0100
Tevin Coleman11-40

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3219620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17784.61
Aaron Rodgers34414.70
Jamaal Williams4174.30
DeShone Kizer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams711811
Randall Cobb56431
Aaron Jones33280
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22190
Jimmy Graham25130
Equanimeous St. Brown23120
Jamaal Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49