2020 · Week 4

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

16·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

56.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.221
  • 44.3%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.148EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.23CPOE+6.90
  • 43.8%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.98
  • 1.6%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
ATLQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:33773Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:0134Punt0–7
GBQ1 9:05965Turnover on downs0–7
ATLQ1 3:141994Field goal3–7
GBQ2 7:381275Touchdown3–13
ATLQ2 2:283-5Punt3–13
GBQ2 1:37860Touchdown3–20
ATLQ2 0:46311End of half3–20
GBQ3 15:0069Punt3–20
ATLQ3 11:42962Touchdown9–20
GBQ3 7:20451Touchdown9–27
ATLQ3 5:181464Touchdown16–27
GBQ4 12:521041Field goal16–30
ATLQ4 5:55849Turnover on downs16–30
GBQ4 3:38630Punt16–30
ATLQ4 1:46844Turnover on downs16–30
GBQ4 0:0500End of half16–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/3928500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley16573.62
Matt Ryan2105.00
Brian Hill4102.50
Ito Smith231.50
Russell Gage1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus89860
Hayden Hurst46510
Christian Blake35470
Julio Jones44320
Ito Smith33240
Russell Gage23220
Brian Hill22130
Todd Gurley1160
Calvin Ridley0500

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3332740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones15714.70
Jamaal Williams8101.30
Aaron Rodgers155.00
AJ Dillon133.00
Tim Boyle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Tonyan66983
Jamaal Williams88950
Marquez Valdes-Scantling48450
Aaron Jones55401
Darrius Shepherd23210
Malik Taylor11200
Tyler Ervin1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.91