Closing spread
GB -5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.221
- 44.3%Success rate50.7%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.23CPOE+6.90
- 43.8%Third-down rate50.7%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.28Points / drive2.98
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/39 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/33 | 327 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Tonyan | 6 | 6 | 98 | 3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.91