2016 · CON

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·44

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

59.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.196
  • 45.9%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.138EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.71CPOE+6.59
  • 47.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.93
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001380Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 8:24652Missed field goal0–7
ATLQ1 5:351169Field goal0–10
GBQ1 0:14764Turnover0–10
ATLQ2 10:59980Touchdown0–17
GBQ2 7:2438Punt0–17
ATLQ2 5:58428Punt0–17
GBQ2 3:1553Turnover0–17
ATLQ2 1:50968Touchdown0–24
GBQ2 0:0300End of half0–24
GBQ3 15:0030Punt0–24
ATLQ3 14:42275Touchdown0–31
GBQ3 13:511275Touchdown7–31
ATLQ3 9:191055Touchdown7–37
GBQ3 4:11975Touchdown15–37
ATLQ3 0:38733Touchdown15–44
GBQ4 12:071669Touchdown21–44
ATLQ4 6:4365Punt21–44
GBQ4 2:36521End of half21–44

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/4528731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers44611.50
Ty Montgomery3175.70
Brett Hundley11414.00
Christine Michael6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb69820
Jared Cook712781
Jordy Nelson69671
Davante Adams33161
Geronimo Allison11110
Christine Michael1230
Ty Montgomery1320
Jeff Janis0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3839240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman14423.00
Tevin Coleman11292.61
Matt Ryan3237.71
Mohamed Sanu177.00
Taylor Gabriel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9121802
Mohamed Sanu57521
Devonta Freeman45421
Tevin Coleman33350
Patrick DiMarco11310
Taylor Gabriel23240
Austin Hooper22230
Levine Toilolo1250
Aldrick Robinson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.15