Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.142
- 44.0%Success rate47.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.47CPOE+2.68
- 44.6%Third-down rate47.1%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.59
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/39 | 375 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 17 | 259 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/36 | 327 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 10 | 146 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 9 | 33 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.35