2014 · Week 14

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

37·43

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.142
  • 44.0%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.47CPOE+2.68
  • 44.6%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.59
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
GBQ1 15:00781Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:13977Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 7:001384Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 14:5544Punt7–14
GBQ2 13:131163Field goal7–17
ATLQ2 7:17225Turnover7–17
GBQ2 6:27415Touchdown7–24
ATLQ2 4:20510Punt7–24
GBQ2 2:35853Touchdown7–31
ATLQ2 0:24345Missed field goal7–31
ATLQ3 15:00582Touchdown14–31
GBQ3 12:35413Punt14–31
ATLQ3 10:5157Field goal17–31
GBQ3 8:20762Field goal17–34
ATLQ3 3:571278Touchdown24–34
GBQ4 12:33474Touchdown24–40
ATLQ4 10:381271Touchdown30–40
GBQ4 6:1536Field goal30–43
ATLQ4 4:33966Touchdown37–43
GBQ4 2:11655Turnover on downs37–43

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3937541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson16503.11
Matt Ryan22311.50
Jacquizz Rodgers3206.70
Devin Hester100.00
Devonta Freeman2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones11172591
Roddy White35421
Steven Jackson22260
Jacquizz Rodgers13140
Harry Douglas23111
Devonta Freeman22100
Patrick DiMarco1190
Eric Weems1151
Devin Hester0200
Levine Toilolo13-10

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3632730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks10757.51
Eddie Lacy13735.61
Aaron Rodgers5285.60
Randall Cobb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson8101462
Randall Cobb45580
Andrew Quarless34520
Eddie Lacy59331
James Starks22260
Davante Adams1460
Richard Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.35