2017 · Week 2

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

55

Model margin

-1.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.047
  • 45.2%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.152
  • 6.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.96
  • 39.5%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.02
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00986Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:511366Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 3:433-11Punt7–7
GBQ1 2:4847Punt7–7
ATLQ1 0:221087Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 11:10624Punt7–14
ATLQ2 7:14658Field goal7–17
GBQ2 3:216-2Punt7–17
ATLQ2 1:5931Punt7–17
GBQ2 1:0938Turnover7–17
ATLQ2 0:47436Touchdown7–24
GBQ2 0:1900End of half7–24
GBQ3 15:002-10Opp touchdown7–31
GBQ3 14:041175Field goal10–31
ATLQ3 9:33940Field goal10–34
GBQ3 4:191485Touchdown16–34
ATLQ4 12:42522Punt16–34
GBQ4 9:35885Touchdown23–34
ATLQ4 5:51945Punt23–34
GBQ4 1:02730End of half23–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers33/5034321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery10353.51
Randall Cobb11010.00
Aaron Rodgers284.00
Jamaal Williams263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams810991
Ty Montgomery67751
Randall Cobb69600
Martellus Bennett511470
Geronimo Allison35240
Richard Rodgers24220
Trevor Davis1190
Jamaal Williams1150

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2825210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman19844.42
Tevin Coleman6427.00
Matt Ryan188.00
Taylor Gabriel177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones591080
Mohamed Sanu56850
Justin Hardy12190
Devonta Freeman22160
Taylor Gabriel23140
Austin Hooper2270
Tevin Coleman2231
Andre Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.14