Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
-1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.047
- 45.2%Success rate45.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.152
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.27CPOE+2.96
- 39.5%Third-down rate44.1%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.77Points / drive2.02
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 33/50 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/28 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.14