Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.358EPA / play-0.181
- 36.7%Success rate38.2%
- -0.638EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.438
- 10.0%Explosive rate13.2%
- -10.42CPOE-9.65
- 16.7%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 0.46Points / drive1.91
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
34.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.47