2026 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

35·14

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.010
  • 44.5%Success rate40.0%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.266
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.68CPOE-1.28
  • 39.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.96
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
ATLQ1 15:00421Turnover0–0
GBQ1 13:2736Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:3359Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:061082Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 5:13880Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 1:3236Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:48742Punt7–7
GBQ2 10:3431Punt7–7
ATLQ2 9:35738Field goal10–7
GBQ2 4:4845Missed field goal10–7
ATLQ2 3:42863Touchdown17–7
GBQ2 0:5938Punt17–7
ATLQ2 0:2820End of half17–7
GBQ3 15:001063Turnover on downs17–7
ATLQ3 9:561187Touchdown24–7
GBQ3 3:38718Punt24–7
ATLQ3 0:55893Field goal27–7
GBQ4 10:571076Touchdown27–14
ATLQ4 8:18867Touchdown35–14
GBQ4 3:331363Turnover35–14
ATLQ4 1:1100End of half35–14

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.18/2525611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson291946.72
Brian Robinson10505.01
Michael Penix Jr.2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London9101940
Bijan Robinson22190
Austin Hooper22111
Jahan Dotson13110
Olamide Zaccheaus2290
Zachariah Branch1270
Kyle Pitts1250

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love28/5331221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
MarShawn Lloyd4112.80
Kaleb Johnson461.50
Jordan Love100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matthew Golden5121001
Christian Watson710961
Skyy Moore37310
Tucker Kraft48260
J. Michael Sturdivant33220
Jonnu Smith23160
Kaleb Johnson13100
MarShawn Lloyd2370
Chris Brooks1140
Bo Melton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.09