2016 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

32·33

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

51

Model margin

+2.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.196
  • 45.9%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.138EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.71CPOE+6.59
  • 47.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.93
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB
2013 · W14ATL @ GB21–22GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001167Field goal0–3
GBQ1 9:41675Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 6:08371Touchdown7–10
GBQ1 4:281480Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 11:53624Field goal14–13
GBQ2 8:523-5Punt14–13
ATLQ2 7:1044Punt14–13
GBQ2 5:46410Touchdown21–13
ATLQ2 4:22860Touchdown21–19
GBQ2 0:27353Field goal24–19
GBQ3 15:00720Punt24–19
ATLQ3 11:021575Touchdown24–26
GBQ3 3:31610Punt24–26
ATLQ4 14:483-8Punt24–26
GBQ4 12:311481Touchdown32–26
ATLQ4 3:581175Touchdown32–33
GBQ4 0:3147Turnover on downs32–33
ATLQ4 0:0900End of half32–33

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/3824640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers66010.00
Don Jackson4102.50
Knile Davis341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson49941
Davante Adams1214740
Jeff Janis44301
Trevor Davis34241
Geronimo Allison24211
Knile Davis2240

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/3528830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terron Ward6467.70
Devonta Freeman11353.21
Matt Ryan294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu910841
Taylor Gabriel33681
Austin Hooper55410
Julio Jones35290
Devonta Freeman46231
Jacob Tamme22190
Justin Hardy11130
Terron Ward11110
Aldrick Robinson0100
Levine Toilolo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.83