Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.196
- 45.9%Success rate49.5%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.138EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.71CPOE+6.59
- 47.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.39Points / drive2.93
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/38 | 246 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Don Jackson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 12 | 14 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Trevor Davis | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/35 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terron Ward | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 9 | 10 | 84 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.83