2001 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.025
- 39.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- 33.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.43
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 14/25 | 228 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 7 | 9 | 165 | 3 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 40/56 | 399 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 13 | 138 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 12 | 17 | 89 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Frank Murphy | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91