2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

27·24

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -5

Total

35

Model margin

+1.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.025
  • 39.4%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.033EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.43
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
CHIQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:4229Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 13:59518Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:501581Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 2:293-8Punt0–3
TBQ1 1:17422Field goal0–6
CHIQ2 13:4931Punt0–6
TBQ2 12:3937Punt0–6
CHIQ2 11:01562Touchdown7–6
TBQ2 8:21231Turnover7–6
CHIQ2 7:08823Punt7–6
TBQ2 2:41984Field goal7–9
CHIQ2 0:2315End of half7–9
TBQ3 15:0032Punt7–9
CHIQ3 13:07455Touchdown14–9
TBQ3 11:0336Punt20–9
CHIQ3 9:34166Touchdown21–9
TBQ3 9:2315Turnover21–9
CHIQ3 8:58919Field goal24–9
TBQ3 4:0136Punt24–9
CHIQ3 2:54410Punt24–9
TBQ3 0:531153Touchdown24–16
CHIQ4 12:25411Punt24–16
TBQ4 10:1049Turnover on downs24–16
CHIQ4 9:2639Field goal27–16
TBQ4 6:591277Touchdown27–24
CHIQ4 2:2935Punt27–24
TBQ4 2:0110Turnover27–24
CHIQ4 1:5310Turnover on downs27–24
TBQ4 0:18222Missed field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller14/2522831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas23582.50
James Allen2126.00
Jim Miller4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker791653
David Terrell15150
Fred Baxter24130
Anthony Thomas12100
Dez White1170
John Davis0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson40/5639902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn8121.50
Brad Johnson351.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Warrick Dunn12131380
Keyshawn Johnson1217890
Reidel Anthony37570
Dave Moore56360
Karl Williams34340
Frank Murphy1490
Aaron Stecker1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91