2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

27·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -8

Total

33

Model margin

+5.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.113EPA / play-0.088
  • 36.9%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 31.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.28
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:001036Field goal3–0
BALQ1 9:241375Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ1 2:201240Punt3–0
BALQ2 13:1537Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 12:13439Touchdown10–0
BALQ2 10:10414Opp touchdown17–0
CLEQ2 8:0900Opp touchdown17–0
BALQ2 8:09755Touchdown17–7
CLEQ2 5:34634Field goal20–7
BALQ2 2:00927Turnover20–7
CLEQ2 0:502-2End of half20–7
BALQ3 15:001375Turnover20–7
CLEQ3 8:1032Turnover20–7
BALQ3 6:48226Touchdown20–14
CLEQ3 6:073-10Punt20–14
BALQ3 4:54311Turnover20–14
CLEQ3 3:3510Turnover20–14
BALQ3 3:2935Field goal20–17
CLEQ3 1:30624Turnover20–17
BALQ4 14:4759Punt20–17
CLEQ4 12:5134Punt20–17
BALQ4 10:383-1Punt20–17
CLEQ4 9:531268Touchdown27–17
BALQ4 4:02517Turnover on downs27–17
CLEQ4 3:143-3Punt27–17
BALQ4 1:05630Turnover on downs27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch19/3014403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benjamin Gay18563.11
Jamel White9293.21
Dennis Northcutt11212.00
Tim Couch2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson36540
Dennis Northcutt55450
Jamel White45180
Quincy Morgan26150
O.J. Santiago2290
Benjamin Gay1270
Aaron Shea1260
Jammi German0100
Tim Couch11-100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac23/4426124

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Brookins21894.20
Moe Williams5193.80
Jermaine Lewis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe78780
Qadry Ismail613680
Travis Taylor514480
Todd Heap11241
Brandon Stokley13211
Moe Williams11150
Jermaine Lewis1150
Obafemi Ayanbadejo1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.56