Closing spread
BAL -8
Total
33
Model margin
+5.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.088
- 36.9%Success rate39.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 31.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.05Points / drive1.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 19/30 | 144 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Gay | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 1 | -10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 23/44 | 261 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brookins | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 14 | 48 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.56