Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.028
- 39.1%Success rate39.3%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.182
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate28.9%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 0.89Points / drive1.12
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 36/62 | 436 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 7 | 15 | 153 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 11 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 21/33 | 334 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 23 | 81 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 7 | 8 | 127 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| David Boston | 5 | 9 | 80 | 2 |
| Steve Bush | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06