2001 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

38·45

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ARI -2

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.028
  • 39.1%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.182
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate28.9%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
  • 0.89Points / drive1.12
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.064EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:00937Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:421399Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 2:551866Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 11:26423Turnover7–7
DETQ2 9:21669Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 7:00429Punt14–7
DETQ2 4:1235Punt14–7
ARIQ2 3:011047Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 0:1712End of half14–14
ARIQ3 15:00623Punt14–14
DETQ3 12:111050Touchdown21–14
ARIQ3 7:43380Touchdown21–21
DETQ3 6:13277Touchdown28–21
ARIQ3 4:5535Punt28–21
DETQ3 3:44734Field goal31–21
ARIQ3 0:02731Touchdown31–28
DETQ4 13:11422Punt31–28
ARIQ4 11:21359Touchdown31–35
DETQ4 10:0436Opp touchdown31–42
ARIQ4 9:0400Opp touchdown31–42
DETQ4 9:0449Turnover31–42
ARIQ4 7:3735Field goal31–45
DETQ4 6:32962Touchdown38–45
ARIQ4 4:1137Punt38–45
DETQ4 3:29824Turnover38–45
ARIQ4 2:0539Punt38–45
DETQ4 0:23415End of half38–45

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch36/6243633

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamont Warren9323.61
Reuben Droughns650.80
Larry Foster133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton7151530
Bert Emanuel57800
Lamont Warren1112641
Larry Foster44570
Scotty Anderson24150
Reuben Droughns1140
David Sloan2632

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer21/3333441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman23813.50
Jake Plummer155.00
Thomas Jones231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders781271
MarTay Jenkins35901
David Boston59802
Steve Bush34230
Michael Pittman1330
Arnold Jackson1130
Tywan Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.06