Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
36
Model margin
+6.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play+0.060
- 40.8%Success rate42.5%
- -0.233EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.5%
- 34.6%Third-down rate45.8%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 0.28Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quinn | 17/31 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quinn | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 21/33 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 21 | 52 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 9 | 12 | 112 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14