2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Jonathan Quinn

7·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

36

Model margin

+6.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.282EPA / play+0.060
  • 40.8%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.233EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.375EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 26.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 0.28Points / drive1.58
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
JAXQ1 15:00544Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 12:3933Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:08525Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:331462Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 0:474-1Punt0–3
PITQ2 14:36515Punt0–3
JAXQ2 12:1738Punt0–3
PITQ2 10:4231Punt0–3
JAXQ2 9:3636Punt0–3
PITQ2 6:55620Punt0–3
JAXQ2 2:4843Punt0–3
PITQ2 1:44974Field goal0–6
JAXQ2 0:0610End of half0–6
PITQ3 15:0039Punt0–6
JAXQ3 13:011040Turnover0–6
PITQ3 8:10740Punt0–6
JAXQ3 4:3947Punt0–6
PITQ3 2:18656Touchdown6–13
JAXQ3 0:1900Touchdown7–13
PITQ3 0:0000Punt7–13
PITQ4 15:00524Punt7–13
JAXQ4 11:27530Punt7–13
PITQ4 9:21620Punt7–13
JAXQ4 6:35666Turnover7–13
PITQ4 4:01579Touchdown7–20
JAXQ4 1:5666Turnover7–20
PITQ4 0:311-1End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jonathan Quinn17/3122500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Quinn4399.80
Stacey Mack860.80
Elvis Joseph362.00
Jimmy Smith1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell711890
Jimmy Smith58680
Sean Dawkins14260
Stacey Mack11190
Kyle Brady26170
Elvis Joseph1160

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart21/3326610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis21522.50
Kordell Stewart55010.01
Amos Zereoue6396.50
Hines Ward133.00
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward9121121
Bobby Shaw48740
Troy Edwards35350
Mark Bruener22140
Plaxico Burress11130
Jerame Tuman12120
Amos Zereoue1160
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.84
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.14