Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.023
- 41.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.011EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.16Points / drive1.31
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 10/21 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 5 | -8 | -1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 24/36 | 188 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 9 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45