2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

24·0

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIA -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.1%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.011EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.31
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:37519Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:40941Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 3:1300Opp touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 3:131147Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ2 10:58931Punt7–0
MIAQ2 5:2635Punt7–0
NYJQ2 4:0430Punt7–0
MIAQ2 3:3734Punt7–0
NYJQ2 2:33435Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 1:4436Punt14–0
NYJQ2 1:0034Punt14–0
MIAQ2 0:121-1End of half14–0
NYJQ3 15:0033Punt14–0
MIAQ3 13:10937Opp touchdown21–0
NYJQ3 8:1500Opp touchdown21–0
MIAQ3 8:15523Punt21–0
NYJQ3 4:03525Punt21–0
MIAQ3 0:49431Turnover21–0
NYJQ4 14:4636Punt21–0
MIAQ4 12:471040Turnover21–0
NYJQ4 9:3331Punt21–0
MIAQ4 8:2426Turnover21–0
NYJQ4 8:09512Field goal24–0
MIAQ4 5:1230Punt24–0
NYJQ4 3:48826End of half24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde10/217610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18663.70
LaMont Jordan3299.70
Santana Moss1-6-6.00
Vinny Testaverde5-8-1.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles34421
Curtis Martin56130
Anthony Becht1280
Wayne Chrebet0300
Santana Moss0300

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler24/3618803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith19532.80
Jay Fiedler4143.50
Travis Minor691.50
James McKnight122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight911660
Oronde Gadsden35340
Chris Chambers25250
Travis Minor56230
Lamar Smith22140
Jed Weaver11130
Dedric Ward1470
Hunter Goodwin1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.45