Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
37
Model margin
-0.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.125
- 39.2%Success rate36.1%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 31.5%Third-down rate32.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.34Points / drive0.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/32 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | -10 | -5.0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | -16 | -16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Leaf | 11/26 | 102 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Leaf | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.37