2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

36·3

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Ryan Leaf

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

37

Model margin

-0.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.125
  • 39.2%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.132
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
  • 1.34Points / drive0.93
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:00742Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 10:1530Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:4335Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:175-2Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:201366Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ2 13:1333Punt0–0
DALQ2 12:1918Turnover0–0
PHIQ2 12:10630Touchdown7–0
DALQ2 8:3923Turnover7–0
PHIQ2 7:474-6Turnover7–0
DALQ2 6:5037Punt7–0
PHIQ2 5:47522Field goal10–0
DALQ2 3:5933Punt10–0
PHIQ2 2:021147Field goal13–0
DALQ2 0:2220Opp touchdown20–0
PHIQ2 0:0000Opp touchdown20–0
PHIQ3 15:00927Field goal23–0
DALQ3 10:0067Punt23–0
PHIQ3 7:001042Field goal26–0
DALQ3 1:23859Field goal26–3
PHIQ4 12:081366Field goal29–3
DALQ4 3:1310Opp touchdown36–3
PHIQ4 2:5100Opp touchdown36–3
DALQ4 2:51313Punt36–3
PHIQ4 0:492-2End of half36–3

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb16/3212911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley261023.90
Donovan McNabb4246.00
Koy Detmer2-2-1.00
Brian Mitchell2-10-5.00
Freddie Mitchell1-16-16.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duce Staley45310
Todd Pinkston25300
Chad Lewis36181
James Thrash27170
Freddie Mitchell24150
Brian Mitchell11110
Cecil Martin1140
Jamie Reader1130

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Leaf11/2610202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith15805.30
Joey Galloway22211.00
Troy Hambrick3175.70
Michael Wiley2136.50
Ryan Leaf100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail58570
Joey Galloway25200
Emmitt Smith22100
Mike Lucky1290
Jackie Harris1160
Darrin Chiaverini0200
J.J. Huggins0200
Troy Hambrick0100
Michael Wiley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.37