Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
45
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:40 | 1 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:13 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:43 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:20 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:17 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 9:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:57 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 3:02 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 17 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:05 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:39 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| LAC | Q3 4:37 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LV | Q3 4:18 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 9:57 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 6:04 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| LAC | Q4 2:46 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| LV | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| LAC | Q4 0:55 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 24–34 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.