2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

20·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBengals
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.090
  • 39.7%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.080
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive0.98
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. CIN are 12-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CIN
TENQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 14:43618Punt7–0
TENQ1 11:111177Field goal10–0
CINQ1 5:14955Touchdown10–7
TENQ1 1:0610Turnover10–7
CINQ1 0:48713Punt10–7
TENQ2 13:3439Punt10–7
CINQ2 11:5145Punt10–7
TENQ2 9:2135Punt10–7
CINQ2 7:46860Turnover on downs10–7
TENQ2 3:09624Punt10–7
CINQ2 0:492-2End of half10–7
CINQ3 15:00312Turnover10–7
TENQ3 13:40731Punt10–7
CINQ3 8:4939Punt10–7
TENQ3 6:48986Touchdown17–7
CINQ3 2:0636Punt17–7
TENQ3 0:4933Punt17–7
CINQ4 14:46411Punt17–7
TENQ4 13:17417Turnover17–7
CINQ4 11:003-3Turnover17–7
TENQ4 9:451136Field goal20–7
CINQ4 2:56311Turnover20–7
TENQ4 2:2735Punt20–7
CINQ4 1:521269Turnover on downs20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair16/2517211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve McNair56813.60
Eddie George23612.70
Skip Hicks300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason48620
Kevin Dyson44551
Frank Wycheck34230
Brian Natkin11150
Drew Bennett1450
Eddie George1240
Skip Hicks1140
Mike Green1140

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna23/4123412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon17382.20
Jon Kitna199.00
Brandon Bennett273.50
Peter Warrick1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ron Dugans57511
Danny Farmer22450
Darnay Scott47350
Tony McGee44310
Peter Warrick310290
Corey Dillon22230
Brandon Bennett2380
T.J. Houshmandzadeh0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.46