Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.090
- 39.7%Success rate39.0%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.49Points / drive0.98
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/25 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 23 | 61 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Natkin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/41 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dugans | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Danny Farmer | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.46