Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:25 | 10 | 48 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:25 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:31 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:27 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:36 | 14 | 66 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 5:38 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 2:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 1:27 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:14 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 10:07 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q3 9:42 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 7:13 | 15 | 109 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q4 14:19 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:20 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q4 9:49 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 6:00 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| ARI | Q4 1:54 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/31 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.