Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/31 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.