Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/37 | 304 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.