Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutChris DavisCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableLawrence GuyDEShoulder· Full
- QuestionableManti Te'oLBFoot· Full
- QuestionableSean LissemoreDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJason VerrettCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRRibs· Full
Cardinals
- OutAlex OkaforLBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableAndre EllingtonRBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableDave ZastudilPleft Groin· Limited
- QuestionableTyrann MathieuSKnee· Full
- ProbableFrostee RuckerDTBack· Full
- ProbableJonathan CooperGToe· Full
- ProbableKevin MinterLBChest· Full
- ProbableLarry FitzgeraldWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:20 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:32 | 3 | 68 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:57 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:08 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 0:10 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:42 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 9:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 7:18 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 6:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 3:22 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 30 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| ARI | Q3 11:38 | 8 | 21 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q3 6:43 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| ARI | Q3 5:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q3 3:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–6 |
| ARI | Q3 2:13 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| LAC | Q4 12:30 | 10 | 46 | Punt | 17–12 |
| ARI | Q4 6:50 | 11 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–18 |
| LAC | Q4 2:25 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 17–18 |
| ARI | Q4 1:49 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 17–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/37 | 304 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.