Closing spread
LAC -8.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-11.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.167
- 48.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.270EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.360
- 5.6%Explosive rate5.5%
- +4.61CPOE-6.21
- 46.2%Third-down rate25.0%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.35Points / drive1.39
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 27/37 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 13 | 95 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/27 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
0.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
20.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.99
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-11.78