2026 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

26·14

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -8.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapChargers
  • -0.024EPA / play-0.209
  • 44.6%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.191
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.235
  • 4.4%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +0.50CPOE-5.83
  • 38.2%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.22
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–4 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7LAC @ ARI15–17ARI
2022 · W12LAC @ ARI25–24CHARGERS
2018 · W12ARI @ LAC10–45CHARGERS
2014 · W1SD @ ARI17–18ARI
2010 · W4ARI @ SD10–41CHARGERS
2006 · W17ARI @ SD20–27CHARGERS
2002 · W3SD @ ARI23–15CHARGERS
2001 · W11ARI @ SD20–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LAC
ARIQ1 15:001170Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 8:49877Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 4:22844Missed field goal7–7
LACQ2 14:51422Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 13:221166Field goal10–7
LACQ2 6:511252Turnover on downs10–7
ARIQ2 1:55952Field goal13–7
LACQ3 15:00524Punt13–7
ARIQ3 12:06975Field goal16–7
LACQ3 7:25412Touchdown16–14
ARIQ3 6:03835Punt16–14
LACQ3 2:37511Punt16–14
ARIQ3 0:1139Punt16–14
LACQ4 13:553-1Punt16–14
ARIQ4 12:2123Touchdown23–14
LACQ4 11:44424Turnover23–14
ARIQ4 9:39834Punt23–14
LACQ4 4:44638Turnover on downs23–14
ARIQ4 4:0938Field goal26–14
LACQ4 2:3349Turnover on downs26–14
ARIQ4 1:5200End of half26–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett27/3727710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier17613.60
Jeremiyah Love11413.71
Jacoby Brissett6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride913951
Kendrick Bourne88750
Michael Wilson57560
Marvin Harrison Jr.13330
Tyler Allgeier2290
Jeremiyah Love2490

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert17/2720911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton12433.61
Justin Herbert5295.80
Keaton Mitchell492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey57821
David Njoku55580
Oronde Gadsden II22320
Tre Harris36200
Quentin Johnston26170
Derius Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.98