2018 · Week 12

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

10·45

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LAC -14

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapChargers
  • -0.240EPA / play+0.126
  • 35.6%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.193EPA / rush+0.001
  • 6.0%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -7.13CPOE+3.54
  • 29.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 0.92Points / drive2.31
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–4 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ARI @ LAC26–14ARI
2024 · W7LAC @ ARI15–17ARI
2022 · W12LAC @ ARI25–24CHARGERS
2014 · W1SD @ ARI17–18ARI
2010 · W4ARI @ SD10–41CHARGERS
2006 · W17ARI @ SD20–27CHARGERS
2002 · W3SD @ ARI23–15CHARGERS
2001 · W11ARI @ SD20–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LAC
ARIQ1 15:00976Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 10:203-9Punt7–0
ARIQ1 8:09732Field goal10–0
LACQ1 4:221063Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 14:123-10Punt10–7
LACQ2 11:552-4Turnover10–7
ARIQ2 11:1037Missed field goal10–7
LACQ2 9:40549Touchdown10–14
ARIQ2 6:5910Turnover10–14
LACQ2 6:51541Touchdown10–21
ARIQ2 4:16720Punt10–21
LACQ2 1:451080Touchdown10–28
ARIQ2 0:0800End of half10–28
LACQ3 15:001177Touchdown10–35
ARIQ3 8:0133Punt10–35
LACQ3 6:041073Touchdown10–42
ARIQ4 15:003-5Punt10–42
LACQ4 12:593-1Punt10–42
ARIQ4 11:53618Punt10–42
LACQ4 8:23847Field goal10–45
ARIQ4 3:2549Turnover on downs10–45
LACQ4 1:1200End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen12/1910511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson17633.70
Chase Edmonds500.00
Josh Rosen2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk46410
Larry Fitzgerald22301
David Johnson23160
Trent Sherfield1160
Ricky Seals-Jones1250
T.J. Logan1150
Jermaine Gresham1120

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers28/2925930
Geno Smith0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon10616.12
Justin Jackson7578.10
Austin Ekeler5357.01
Detrez Newsome4153.80
Geno Smith372.30
Philip Rivers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen77721
Austin Ekeler1011680
Travis Benjamin33470
Mike Williams44252
Sean Culkin11240
Antonio Gates11180
Melvin Gordon2250
Virgil Green0100
Geremy Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.75