Closing spread
LAC -14
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.126
- 35.6%Success rate47.0%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.193EPA / rush+0.001
- 6.0%Explosive rate12.5%
- -7.13CPOE+3.54
- 29.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 0.92Points / drive2.31
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 12/19 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/29 | 259 | 3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Justin Jackson | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Detrez Newsome | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 |
| Sean Culkin | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.75