Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.081
- 44.1%Success rate40.7%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.084
- 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.13CPOE-1.70
- 43.5%Third-down rate35.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.97Points / drive1.60
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 35/47 | 274 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Carter | 7 | 10 | 73 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 15 | 60 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 18/29 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.34