2022 · Week 12

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

25·24

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.1%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.084
  • 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.13CPOE-1.70
  • 43.5%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.60
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–4 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ARI @ LAC26–14ARI
2024 · W7LAC @ ARI15–17ARI
2018 · W12ARI @ LAC10–45CHARGERS
2014 · W1SD @ ARI17–18ARI
2010 · W4ARI @ SD10–41CHARGERS
2006 · W17ARI @ SD20–27CHARGERS
2002 · W3SD @ ARI23–15CHARGERS
2001 · W11ARI @ SD20–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–ARI
LACQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:44337Turnover0–0
LACQ1 10:2733Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:051191Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 2:333-2Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:51619Field goal0–10
LACQ2 14:031175Touchdown7–10
ARIQ2 8:5149Turnover7–10
LACQ2 7:03566Touchdown14–10
ARIQ2 4:281470Touchdown14–17
LACQ2 0:1200End of half14–17
ARIQ3 15:00549Missed field goal14–17
LACQ3 11:011353Field goal17–17
ARIQ3 4:281175Touchdown17–24
LACQ4 13:31427Punt17–24
ARIQ4 10:5238Punt17–24
LACQ4 9:073-3Punt17–24
ARIQ4 7:3435Punt17–24
LACQ4 6:07830Punt17–24
ARIQ4 2:1933Punt17–24
LACQ4 1:48848Touchdown25–24
ARIQ4 0:1520End of half25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert35/4727430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert4389.50
Austin Ekeler5204.00
Joshua Kelley242.00
Isaiah Spiller231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Carter710731
Austin Ekeler1115601
Josh Palmer57560
Keenan Allen57491
Gerald Everett44180
Joshua Kelley23160
Isaiah Spiller1120

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray18/2919121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner251204.80
Kyler Murray7568.01
Keaontay Ingram252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins46871
Marquise Brown68460
James Conner33201
Robbie Chosen13170
Corey Clement1180
Andre Baccellia1170
A.J. Green1250
Trey McBride1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.34