Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.067
- 42.3%Success rate47.3%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.023
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.69CPOE+2.11
- 40.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.25Points / drive2.31
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/39 | 349 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 14/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42