2024 · Week 7

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

15·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.044EPA / play+0.067
  • 42.3%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.023
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.69CPOE+2.11
  • 40.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.31
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–4 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ARI @ LAC26–14ARI
2022 · W12LAC @ ARI25–24CHARGERS
2018 · W12ARI @ LAC10–45CHARGERS
2014 · W1SD @ ARI17–18ARI
2010 · W4ARI @ SD10–41CHARGERS
2006 · W17ARI @ SD20–27CHARGERS
2002 · W3SD @ ARI23–15CHARGERS
2001 · W11ARI @ SD20–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00629Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 11:5536Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:56685Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 7:27734Punt0–0
LACQ1 4:001344Field goal3–0
ARIQ2 11:591067Touchdown3–7
LACQ2 5:4037Punt3–7
ARIQ2 4:01523Punt3–7
LACQ2 1:47757Field goal6–7
LACQ3 15:00834Punt6–7
ARIQ3 10:25931Turnover on downs6–7
LACQ3 6:06950Field goal9–7
ARIQ3 0:40470Touchdown9–14
LACQ4 14:14541Field goal12–14
ARIQ4 12:09625Punt12–14
LACQ4 10:061477Field goal15–14
ARIQ4 1:54544Field goal15–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/3934900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14402.90
Kimani Vidal3103.30
Justin Herbert284.00
Hassan Haskins221.00
Jalen Reagor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Dissly811810
Josh Palmer45630
Ladd McConkey57460
Simi Fehoko36450
Jalen Reagor11410
Stone Smartt12310
J.K. Dobbins33260
Kimani Vidal1190
Eric Tomlinson1170

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray14/2614511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner191015.30
Kyler Murray66410.71
Emari Demercado11414.00
Clayton Tune320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner24510
Trey McBride57510
Marvin Harrison Jr.36210
Michael Wilson13150
Greg Dortch1251
Elijah Higgins1110
Tip Reiman1110
Zay Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.42