Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 52 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:20 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:21 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 2:23 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:22 | 10 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 10:25 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:58 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 1:49 | 9 | 71 | End of half | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 14:00 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:25 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 10:48 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| ARI | Q3 6:23 | 8 | 83 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| LAC | Q3 1:31 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q4 12:47 | 7 | 91 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| LAC | Q4 9:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–27 |
| ARI | Q4 7:25 | 8 | 84 | Field goal | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 3:23 | 8 | 59 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 22/32 | 356 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.