Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 22/32 | 356 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.