Closing spread
SD -10
Total
47
Model margin
+4.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Hall | 8/14 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 7/14 | 64 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.