Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/36 | 229 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| David Boston | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.