Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–4 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ARI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:41 | 3 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:11 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 7:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:44 | 9 | 38 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:31 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:34 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:56 | 9 | 43 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:44 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:03 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:05 | 2 | 15 | End of half | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 14:32 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q3 11:19 | 10 | 20 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 5:54 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q3 0:29 | 3 | 2 | Safety | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q4 14:44 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 16–7 |
| ARI | Q4 12:24 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 23–7 |
| LAC | Q4 11:23 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 23–7 |
| ARI | Q4 11:23 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 23–15 |
| LAC | Q4 9:30 | 10 | 29 | Turnover | 23–15 |
| ARI | Q4 4:59 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 23–15 |
| LAC | Q4 1:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–15 |
| ARI | Q4 0:35 | 3 | -8 | End of half | 23–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/36 | 229 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| David Boston | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.