Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
40
Model margin
+1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.195
- 39.3%Success rate35.9%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.247
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 40.9%Third-down rate30.3%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.45Points / drive0.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/27 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 21 | 57 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 17/31 | 171 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Byrd | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.41