2001 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

10·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

40

Model margin

+1.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.062EPA / play-0.195
  • 39.3%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.247
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 42.1%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.45Points / drive0.78
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:01826Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:27413Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 6:433-8Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:3932Punt0–0
ATLQ1 3:58945Field goal3–0
CARQ1 1:07412Punt3–0
ATLQ2 14:443-7Punt3–0
CARQ2 12:51930Turnover on downs3–0
ATLQ2 8:211199Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 2:09416Punt10–0
ATLQ2 1:29211End of half10–0
ATLQ3 15:00521Punt10–0
CARQ3 11:3936Punt10–0
ATLQ3 10:054-12Punt10–0
CARQ3 8:40614Punt10–0
ATLQ3 4:4737Punt10–0
CARQ3 3:04611Punt10–0
ATLQ3 0:04732Punt10–0
CARQ4 11:321173Touchdown10–7
ATLQ4 7:12726Punt10–7
CARQ4 3:04525Turnover on downs10–7
ATLQ4 1:4830Punt10–7
CARQ4 0:35324Turnover10–7
ATLQ4 0:0900End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler14/2713200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Smith21572.70
Chris Chandler561.20
Rodney Thomas341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson23350
Tony Martin39300
Maurice Smith11100
Alge Crumpler2290
Terance Mathis1340
Reggie Kelly0300

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke17/3117102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley19552.90
Chris Weinke7385.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac Byrd58690
Donald Hayes37290
Steve Smith34290
Patrick Jeffers1390
Wesley Walls1180
Richard Huntley1170
Kris Mangum0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.41