Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
34
Model margin
-1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.282
- 39.6%Success rate40.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.375
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.28Points / drive0.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:26 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 6:23 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 4:29 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 11:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 10:30 | 7 | 49 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 6:39 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 5:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 4:13 | 10 | 57 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q3 13:41 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q3 11:07 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 17–0 |
| BAL | Q3 6:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q3 5:07 | 10 | 66 | Opp touchdown | 23–1 |
| BAL | Q3 1:44 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 23–1 |
| JAX | Q4 11:05 | 7 | 87 | Opp touchdown | 29–2 |
| BAL | Q4 8:16 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 29–2 |
| JAX | Q4 6:43 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 29–2 |
| BAL | Q4 5:49 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 29–2 |
| JAX | Q4 4:19 | 9 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 35–3 |
| BAL | Q4 1:32 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 42–3 |
| JAX | Q4 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 42–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 23/38 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 21/30 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brookins | 32 | 82 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Stacey Mack | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Moe Williams | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 12 | 60 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.18