Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
-0.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.050
- 39.4%Success rate42.2%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 33.3%Third-down rate42.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.28Points / drive1.40
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:35 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:20 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 2:25 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 13:57 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 9:43 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q2 6:41 | 8 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 2:32 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q2 1:38 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 0:44 | 5 | 20 | End of half | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q3 13:05 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q3 7:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q3 5:17 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q3 1:18 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q4 13:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| CHI | Q4 12:11 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q4 9:54 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| CHI | Q4 3:17 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 13–6 |
| MIN | Q4 0:16 | 3 | 25 | End of half | 13–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 10/21 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 27 | 107 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 1 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Terrell | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Dez White | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/46 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.39