2001 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

0·18

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CLE -6

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.090EPA / play-0.113
  • 39.0%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.080EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.148
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 46.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 0.98Points / drive1.05
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:0031Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 13:56624Field goal0–3
CINQ1 11:261255Missed field goal0–3
CLEQ1 6:41649Turnover0–3
CINQ1 3:4935Punt0–3
CLEQ1 2:201054Field goal0–6
CINQ2 13:18537Missed field goal0–6
CLEQ2 10:1744Punt0–6
CINQ2 8:30631Turnover0–6
CLEQ2 5:036-4Turnover0–6
CINQ2 2:3835Punt0–6
CLEQ2 1:5237Punt0–6
CINQ2 1:0310Turnover0–6
CLEQ2 0:5034Touchdown0–12
CINQ2 0:26223End of half0–12
CLEQ3 15:00613Punt0–12
CINQ3 11:1933Punt0–12
CLEQ3 9:4831Punt0–12
CINQ3 8:07411Turnover0–12
CLEQ3 6:1836Punt0–12
CLEQ3 4:3110Turnover0–12
CINQ3 4:25415Punt0–12
CLEQ3 2:35519Punt0–12
CINQ4 14:384-6Turnover on downs0–12
CLEQ4 13:02840Punt0–12
CINQ4 8:22512Turnover0–12
CLEQ4 7:06624Field goal0–15
CINQ4 2:5510Turnover0–15
CLEQ4 2:3638Field goal0–18
CINQ4 1:134-1Punt0–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna8/198502
Scott Mitchell4/123803
Akili Smith1/2200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon20633.10
Brandon Bennett2178.50
Akili Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Farmer34320
Darnay Scott24240
Peter Warrick12220
Ron Dugans37190
Tony McGee22150
Chad Johnson1870
Corey Dillon1460
Brandon Bennett0100
T.J. Houshmandzadeh0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch16/2718912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson18402.20
Benjamin Gay10161.60
Jamel White5132.60
Dennis Northcutt199.00
Tim Couch500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson6111131
Quincy Morgan57400
Aaron Shea34210
Dennis Northcutt12130
JaJuan Dawson1120
O.J. Santiago0100
Jamel White0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82