Closing spread
CLE -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.113
- 39.0%Success rate36.9%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.148
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- 37.7%Third-down rate31.3%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 0.98Points / drive1.05
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 8/19 | 85 | 0 | 2 |
| Scott Mitchell | 4/12 | 38 | 0 | 3 |
| Akili Smith | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 20 | 63 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/27 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 11 | 113 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82