Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47
Model margin
-2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.101
- 42.5%Success rate39.1%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.76Points / drive0.89
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/26 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 8/19 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 9/20 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 3 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.32