Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47
Model margin
-2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.101
- 42.5%Success rate39.1%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.76Points / drive0.89
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:41 | 1 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:27 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:37 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 3:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 1:24 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 12:05 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DET | Q2 9:12 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 10–6 |
| GB | Q2 4:30 | 2 | -12 | Opp touchdown | 10–13 |
| DET | Q2 3:43 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–13 |
| GB | Q2 3:43 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| DET | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 17–13 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 48 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| GB | Q3 12:06 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| DET | Q3 10:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 24–13 |
| GB | Q3 7:16 | 11 | 52 | Punt | 24–13 |
| DET | Q3 0:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–13 |
| GB | Q3 0:37 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 24–13 |
| DET | Q4 13:10 | 4 | -7 | Safety | 26–13 |
| GB | Q4 12:20 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 29–13 |
| DET | Q4 7:06 | 21 | 53 | Touchdown | 29–21 |
| GB | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 29–21 |
| DET | Q4 1:10 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 29–27 |
| GB | Q4 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 29–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/26 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 8/19 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike McMahon | 9/20 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 3 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.32