Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
34.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.011
- 42.5%Success rate39.7%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 45.8%Third-down rate42.1%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.58Points / drive1.49
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:58 | 1 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 8:40 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 7:16 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 4:20 | 11 | 59 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 14:54 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 11:43 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 8:46 | 9 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| PIT | Q2 4:03 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 24 | End of half | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 13:19 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q3 12:39 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| PIT | Q3 7:46 | 4 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| TEN | Q3 6:40 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q3 4:37 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| TEN | Q4 14:47 | 12 | 107 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| PIT | Q4 8:23 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 27–24 |
| TEN | Q4 4:53 | 4 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 34–24 |
| PIT | Q4 3:23 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 34–24 |
| TEN | Q4 3:23 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 34–24 |
| PIT | Q4 2:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 34–24 |
| TEN | Q4 1:14 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–24 |
| PIT | Q4 0:57 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 34–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 19/31 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 8 | 12 | 114 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 7 | 14 | 99 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/37 | 334 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 8 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.27