Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.014
- 38.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.080EPA / rush+0.032
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.54
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.6 points. KC are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 11:42 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 10:06 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 8:15 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 4:19 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 13:23 | 8 | 33 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 7:24 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 4:33 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:55 | 7 | 40 | End of half | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 11:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q3 8:04 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 4:19 | 16 | 79 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q4 11:47 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| KC | Q4 9:44 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| SEA | Q4 5:45 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–19 |
| KC | Q4 3:43 | 9 | 38 | End of half | 7–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/26 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/26 | 256 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Thomas | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.41