2001 · Week 11
Final
Dome at America's Center · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
STL -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/34 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.