2019 · Week 4
Final
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
LA -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.001
- 43.6%Success rate44.3%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.42CPOE-1.88
- 42.2%Third-down rate38.8%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.95
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 28/41 | 385 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 12 | 14 | 172 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 45/68 | 517 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 13 | 15 | 164 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 15 | 121 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 7 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60