2021 · Week 3
Final
SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
55
Model margin
-1.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play+0.082
- 49.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.183
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.50CPOE-0.40
- 48.0%Third-down rate42.6%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.51Points / drive2.32
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 41/55 | 432 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 10 | 106 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/38 | 343 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jake Funk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 120 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 12 | 96 | 2 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.34