2021 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

24·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

55

Model margin

-1.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapRams
  • +0.143EPA / play+0.082
  • 49.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.183
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.50CPOE-0.40
  • 48.0%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.51Points / drive2.32
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12TB @ LA7–34RAMS
2022 · W9LA @ TB13–16TB
2021 · playoffsLA @ TB30–27RAMS
2020 · W11LA @ TB27–24RAMS
2019 · W4TB @ LA55–40TB
2016 · W3LA @ TB37–32RAMS
2015 · W15TB @ STL23–31RAMS
2014 · W2STL @ TB19–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–LA
TBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:1036Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:1139Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:04511Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:27637Punt0–0
LAQ1 5:271590Touchdown0–7
TBQ2 12:221681Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 4:031169Touchdown7–14
TBQ2 0:51648Missed field goal7–14
LAQ3 15:00375Touchdown7–21
TBQ3 14:02980Touchdown14–21
LAQ3 9:57775Touchdown14–28
TBQ3 7:2342Punt14–28
LAQ3 4:2437Field goal14–31
TBQ3 3:09767Field goal17–31
LAQ3 1:141267Field goal17–34
TBQ4 8:14525Turnover on downs17–34
LAQ4 7:1049Punt17–34
TBQ4 4:501488Touchdown24–34
LAQ4 1:1000End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady41/5543210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tom Brady3144.71
Ronald Jones5112.20
Leonard Fournette482.00
Chris Godwin Jr.122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8101060
Chris Godwin Jr.67740
Tyler Johnson36630
Rob Gronkowski48550
Giovani Bernard910511
Cameron Brate45350
Leonard Fournette33260
O.J. Howard11110
Scott Miller23110
Jaelon Darden1100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/3834340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel20673.40
Jake Funk166.00
Robert Woods155.00
Matthew Stafford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson351201
Cooper Kupp912962
Van Jefferson46420
Tyler Higbee55401
Robert Woods36330
Sony Michel34120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.34