2020 · Week 11

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

27·24

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.149
  • 44.6%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.032
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.37CPOE+3.10
  • 44.2%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.68
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12TB @ LA7–34RAMS
2022 · W9LA @ TB13–16TB
2021 · playoffsLA @ TB30–27RAMS
2021 · W3TB @ LA24–34RAMS
2019 · W4TB @ LA55–40TB
2016 · W3LA @ TB37–32RAMS
2015 · W15TB @ STL23–31RAMS
2014 · W2STL @ TB19–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–TB
TBQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:471378Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 3:551155Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 14:1038Punt7–7
TBQ2 12:001143Touchdown7–14
LAQ2 8:35870Touchdown14–14
TBQ2 4:31824Punt14–14
LAQ2 1:00661Field goal17–14
LAQ3 15:00311Turnover17–14
TBQ3 13:3232Field goal17–17
LAQ3 12:41849Missed field goal17–17
TBQ3 8:25210Turnover17–17
LAQ3 7:42542Touchdown24–17
TBQ3 5:3931Punt24–17
LAQ3 4:41624Punt24–17
TBQ3 1:243-5Punt24–17
LAQ4 15:0044Punt24–17
TBQ4 13:35522Punt24–17
LAQ4 11:5138Punt24–17
TBQ4 10:18620Turnover on downs24–17
LAQ4 8:1620Turnover24–17
TBQ4 7:17744Touchdown24–24
LAQ4 3:53753Field goal27–24
TBQ4 2:36419Turnover27–24
LAQ4 1:4935Punt27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff39/5137632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown3206.70
Cam Akers5153.00
Darrell Henderson850.60
Tyler Higbee111.00
Jared Goff100.00
Robert Woods2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp11131450
Robert Woods12151301
Josh Reynolds36320
Gerald Everett45270
Tyler Higbee44190
Malcolm Brown1180
Van Jefferson1171
Darrell Henderson2340
Cam Akers1141

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4821622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones10242.40
Leonard Fournette7172.41
Antonio Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown813570
Chris Godwin Jr.710531
Mike Evans59491
Rob Gronkowski26250
Cameron Brate34230
Leonard Fournette1490
Ronald Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56