2020 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.149
- 44.6%Success rate46.9%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.37CPOE+3.10
- 44.2%Third-down rate44.2%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.76Points / drive2.68
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 39/51 | 376 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 13 | 145 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 12 | 15 | 130 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/48 | 216 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 13 | 57 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56