2022 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.030
- 41.2%Success rate44.0%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -2.69CPOE+0.30
- 40.2%Third-down rate38.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.57Points / drive1.63
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13/27 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 9 | 127 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/58 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 7 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.33
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.36