2025 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

7·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

LA perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapRams
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.149
  • 43.3%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -2.55CPOE+1.65
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.67
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9LA @ TB13–16TB
2021 · playoffsLA @ TB30–27RAMS
2021 · W3TB @ LA24–34RAMS
2020 · W11LA @ TB27–24RAMS
2019 · W4TB @ LA55–40TB
2016 · W3LA @ TB37–32RAMS
2015 · W15TB @ STL23–31RAMS
2014 · W2STL @ TB19–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–LA
TBQ1 15:00929Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:101080Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 4:3258Opp touchdown0–14
TBQ1 1:423-9Punt0–14
LAQ1 0:481272Touchdown0–21
TBQ2 10:461065Touchdown7–21
LAQ2 5:03465Touchdown7–28
TBQ2 3:1048Turnover on downs7–28
LAQ2 1:3937Field goal7–31
TBQ2 1:0288Turnover7–31
LAQ3 15:00620Turnover on downs7–31
TBQ3 12:571121Turnover on downs7–31
LAQ3 7:48525Punt7–31
TBQ3 4:2739Punt7–31
LAQ3 2:14840Field goal7–34
TBQ4 13:351145Turnover on downs7–34
LAQ4 9:3239Punt7–34
TBQ4 7:1233Punt7–34
LAQ4 5:26515Punt7–34
TBQ4 1:4736End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater8/156200
Baker Mayfield9/194112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Tucker12423.50
Rachaad White7385.40
Baker Mayfield4194.80
Tez Johnson2126.00
Teddy Bridgewater166.00
Owen Wright362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka38320
Cade Otton47210
Tez Johnson34211
Sterling Shepard35120
Chris Godwin Jr.2490
Rachaad White1140
Sean Tucker1240

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3527330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams12463.80
Blake Corum7243.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua711970
Davante Adams58622
Colby Parkinson44411
Davis Allen34290
Konata Mumpfield22250
Jordan Whittington33170
Kyren Williams1120
Terrance Ferguson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20