2025 · Week 12
Final
SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
Closing spread
LA -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
LA perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.149
- 43.3%Success rate52.2%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- -2.55CPOE+1.65
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.89Points / drive2.67
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 8/15 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 9/19 | 41 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Owen Wright | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/35 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 62 | 2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Davis Allen | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20