2016 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.005
- 36.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.208
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- -6.92CPOE+1.81
- 32.2%Third-down rate44.2%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 0.97Points / drive1.74
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 14/26 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 27 | 85 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 2 | 53 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 36/58 | 405 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 10 | 14 | 132 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 9 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 10 | 46 | 2 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.80