2016 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

37·32

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.203EPA / play-0.005
  • 36.6%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.208
  • 6.8%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -6.92CPOE+1.81
  • 32.2%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.74
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12TB @ LA7–34RAMS
2022 · W9LA @ TB13–16TB
2021 · playoffsLA @ TB30–27RAMS
2021 · W3TB @ LA24–34RAMS
2020 · W11LA @ TB27–24RAMS
2019 · W4TB @ LA55–40TB
2015 · W15TB @ STL23–31RAMS
2014 · W2STL @ TB19–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–TB
LAQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:58411Punt7–0
LAQ1 9:5636Opp touchdown7–6
LAQ1 8:4537Punt7–6
TBQ1 7:3838Punt7–6
LAQ1 6:08838Field goal10–6
TBQ1 2:26980Touchdown10–13
LAQ2 12:23323Turnover10–13
TBQ2 10:511048Touchdown10–20
LAQ2 6:03520Punt10–20
TBQ2 3:043-6Turnover10–20
LAQ2 2:23919Touchdown17–20
TBQ2 0:2200End of half17–20
TBQ3 15:00830Punt17–20
LAQ3 11:4339Punt17–20
TBQ3 9:5935Punt17–20
LAQ3 8:2430Punt17–20
TBQ3 8:00743Missed field goal17–20
LAQ3 4:40869Touchdown24–20
TBQ3 0:481057Opp touchdown31–20
TBQ4 11:39861Touchdown31–26
LAQ4 8:55855Touchdown37–26
TBQ4 4:381285Touchdown37–32
LAQ4 2:153-1Punt37–32
TBQ4 1:421051End of half37–32

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum14/2619021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley27853.12
Benny Cunningham22914.50
Tavon Austin22211.00
Case Keenum210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tavon Austin58821
Brian Quick22531
Kenny Britt46380
Bradley Marquez12120
Benny Cunningham11100
Lance Kendricks0400
Mike Thomas0100
Todd Gurley12-50

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston36/5840531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charles Sims13554.21
Jacquizz Rodgers5153.00
Jameis Winston4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans10141321
Adam Humphries9121000
Charles Sims68690
Cameron Brate510462
Vincent Jackson36370
Jacquizz Rodgers1180
Brandon Myers1370
Russell Shepard1260
Alan Cross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.80