2015 · Week 15
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
STL -1
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Buccaneers
- OutAkeem SpenceDTAnkle· DNP
- OutVincent JacksonWRKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulBruce CarterLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableGeorge JohnsonDECalf· Full
- QuestionableJacquies SmithDEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableLogan MankinsGAnkle· Limited
- ProbableGerald McCoyDTHand· Full
- ProbableLavonte DavidLBAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutAndrew DonnalTKnee· DNP
- OutRobert QuinnDEBack· DNP
- QuestionableEric PattersonCBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableJanoris JenkinsCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableRob HavensteinTCalf· Full
- ProbableTodd GurleyRBNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:54 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 6:44 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| TB | Q1 3:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:38 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q2 14:45 | 13 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:26 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| TB | Q2 2:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:10 | 3 | -8 | End of half | 3–21 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 56 | Field goal | 6–21 |
| LA | Q3 9:16 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| TB | Q3 5:35 | 6 | 41 | Turnover | 6–28 |
| LA | Q3 3:32 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 6–28 |
| TB | Q4 14:49 | 5 | 97 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| LA | Q4 13:05 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 13–31 |
| TB | Q4 10:39 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 16–31 |
| LA | Q4 7:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–31 |
| TB | Q4 6:13 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 16–31 |
| LA | Q4 4:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–31 |
| TB | Q4 3:58 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 23–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/50 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 17 | 157 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.