2015 · Week 15
Final
Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay
Closing spread
STL -1
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/50 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 17 | 157 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.